Long-term job growth expected
Diversification and economic restructuring have helped transform the economy of Bend and Central Oregon from a historic reliance on forest products and agriculture into a diversified mixture of high technology and specialty manufacturing industries. Add the half-billion dollar tourist industry and the outlook for long-term economic strength in the Bend area remains positive despite the dreary economic conditions experienced across the country at the beginning of 2009.The most recent forecast by the Oregon Employment Department projects employment in Central Oregon to grow by 25% between 2006 and 2016, adding 20,890 jobs over the period. This will maintain Central Oregon’s position as the fastest growing region in the state. Oregon as a whole is expected to achieve 14% employment growth over the same period, adding 241,100 jobs.
Job growth is tied to increased population. According to the agency, projections are “based on the assumption that the region’s population will continue to expand and create job opportunities, that there will be continued national exposure for the area as a recognized recreational destination, and that there will be a continued movement away from a natural resource-based economy.” Thus non-manufacturing sectors will lead the way. Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and retail trade will account for nearly half the region’s job growth through 2016.
Payroll jobs in the three Central Oregon counties generate an annual payroll of $2.8 billion. Trade, transportation and utilities—a category that includes wholesale and retail trade—leads with $516.4 million in payroll dollars annually, followed by government at $457.2 million and education and health services at $400.6 million..
Acknowledging a slower economy in the short term, the agency observed in January 2009 that the steep cyclical drop in housing activity is driving the downturn, partly due to the national financial crisis. Central Oregon industries hurting the most are construction, manufacturing and local government. While not as strong as in years past, job gains are still occurring in educational and health services, retail trade and state government. National financial markets will influence future trends.
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